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Chuck DarwinTrump's lawsuit against Ann Selzer is textbook <a href="https://c.im/tags/authoritarianism" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#authoritarianism</a>Reading the complaint in Donald Trump’s lawsuit against pollster <a href="https://c.im/tags/Ann" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Ann</a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Selzer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Selzer</a> over her 2024 poll that found Kamala Harris leading Trump in Iowa, it’s hard not to give in to thoughts of how comically obscene it is. The suit stretches the interpretation of the relevant law — Iowa’s Consumer Fraud Act — well past the breaking point. It leans heavily on “facts” that are nothing but Trump quoting Trump about being mad. It spends a good deal of time citing hard-right outlets like Breitbart as if they are neutral. It’s hard not to laugh at how absurd it is. -- But then you remember that ABC just gave Trump a total of $16 million rather than fight the paper-thin defamation lawsuit he brought against them. And that even after ABC knuckled under, Trump still haslawsuits against CBS, Simon & Schuster, and CNN. And then you also remember that Trump has stated he’s going to use all his might — and that of the government — to bury media he doesn’t like.All of this makes trying to rationally assess whether the lawsuit will succeed nearly impossible. Trump can afford to go scorched earth whether his claims have any merit or not. He has bottomless wealth, particularly regarding legal fees, as he’s made his donors cover at least $100 million of them so far. He’s utterly unconcerned about whether something is true, and he seems to have a never-ending stream of lawyers willing to step up even though several have ended up facing sanctions, criminal charges, or both. Put simply, he has no incentive to back down, ever.All that being said, the lawsuit against Selzer is still straight-up trash, even if it’s trash that somehow manages to succeed because of the unique blend of horrible characteristics exclusive to Trump<a href="https://www.publicnotice.co/p/trump-ann-selzer-lawsuit-explained?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.publicnotice.co/p/trump-ann-selzer-lawsuit-explained?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web</a>

Chuck DarwinTrump’s retribution may focus on individuals, but it’s a collective harm -- So it makes sense to spread the cost of dealing with it.In the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory and promised revenge tour, a number of individuals have proposed the creation of an organization or fund which would take on the job of defending the various lawsuits, prosecutions and generalized legal harassment Trump will bring to the table in the next four years. It’s a very good idea. It’s a necessary one. So a few days ago I started reaching out to some people in the legal world and anti-Trump world to find out what’s going on, whether any efforts are afoot and who is doing what.What I found out is that there are at least a couple groups working toward doing something like this. But the efforts seem embryonic. Or at least I wasn’t able to find out too much. The overnight news that Trump is now suing <a href="https://c.im/tags/Ann" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Ann</a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Selzer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Selzer</a> and the <a href="https://c.im/tags/Des" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Des</a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Moines" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Moines</a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/Register" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Register</a> over her final election poll for “election interference” makes me think that these efforts aren’t coming together soon enough or can’t come together soon enough. (If you’re not familiar with the details, Selzer is a pollster of almost legendary status and in what turned out to be her final public poll, dramatically missed not only the result of the election but the whole direction of it.) Let’s take the Selzer/Des Moines Register suit as our example. Trump is claiming that he was damaged and should be made whole because of a poll that showed him behind and turned out to be wrong. His lawyers are trying to shoe-horn this claim into an Iowa consumer fraud statute. But we shouldn’t be distracted by that. The idea that a political candidate has a cause of action over a poll is absurd on its face. And really that is precisely the point. Trump casts penumbras of power and fear with talk; he holds public space; he keeps opponents off balance and guessing. This is another example.A lot of the power and point of such an exercise is precisely the absurdity of it. It is meant to spur a chorus of “You can’t do that” and “How can he do that?” But he does do it. We have that same mixture of outrage, incomprehension, uncanny laughter, the upshot of which is an overwhelming and over-powering belief that the rules somehow don’t apply to this guy. That’s his power and that is the point. It is a performance art of power enabled by a shameless abuse of the legal systemTrump’s opponents need to learn to speak in that language. Otherwise it’s a professional wrestling grudge match, a taunt-fest with only one side taunting. I fear some folks simply don’t get this dimension of what’s going on. It’s not something you learn in law school and not in conventional, old-style politics either. Defending the targets is key. But that’s not the only point or even the main one. It’s about demonstrating the limits of Trump’s power and embarrassing him, President or not.<a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-big-pile-of-money-and-lawyering-to-defend-trumps-legal-targets" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-big-pile-of-money-and-lawyering-to-defend-trumps-legal-targets</a>

Nonilex<a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Selzer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Selzer</a>’s poll shows independent <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/women" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#women</a> backing <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Harris" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Harris</a> by 28pts, & women 65+ backing her by 2-1. Speaking to Tim Miller of The Bulwark, Selzer speculated about what might have driven these numbers. “It was over the summer that <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Iowa" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Iowa</a>’s 6-week ban on <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/abortion" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#abortion</a> went into effect after all the court challenges were taken care of,” she said. Now, she said, people have been “living with it for a while.”<a href="https://masto.ai/tags/law" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#law</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/RoeRage" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#RoeRage</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/BodilyAutonomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#BodilyAutonomy</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/ReproductiveRights" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ReproductiveRights</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/WomensRights" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#WomensRights</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/WomensHealth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#WomensHealth</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/HarrisWalz2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#HarrisWalz2024</a>

NonilexThe poll may easily turn out to be wrong; <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Selzer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Selzer</a>’s record is as good as anyone’s in the business, but it’s not perfect. Should <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/KamalaHarris" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#KamalaHarris</a> win this <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/election" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#election</a>, though, the poll will be part of the story of her victory. The reason for Selzer’s anomalous finding is simple: <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/women" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#women</a>. If it’s anywhere near accurate, it suggests that conventional political wisdom has been seriously underrating the scale of women’s <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/fury" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#fury</a> over <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/abortion" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#abortion</a> bans & their revulsion at <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Trump" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Trump</a>’s cartoonishly macho campaign.

Nonilex(<a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Trump" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Trump</a> ended up winning <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Iowa" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Iowa</a> by >9 points.) In 2020, her poll again showed Trump ahead by 7pts, which was both close to the final tally &, in retrospect, a sign that <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Biden" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Biden</a>’s margins in neighboring states like <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Wisconsin" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Wisconsin</a> would be much thinner than other polls were indicating.So many of us were anxious to see how big Trump’s lead would be this time, & the fact that <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Selzer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Selzer</a> instead found him <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/losing" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#losing</a> came as a shock.<a href="https://masto.ai/tags/women" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#women</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/BodilyAutonomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#BodilyAutonomy</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/ReproductiveRights" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ReproductiveRights</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/WomensHealth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#WomensHealth</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/HarrisWalz2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#HarrisWalz2024</a>

NonilexAll day, <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/political" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#political</a> nerds had been waiting for the results of <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/AnnSelzer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AnnSelzer</a>’s famously accurate poll of <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Iowa" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Iowa</a>. The state hasn’t been swingy in a long time, but the <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Selzer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Selzer</a> poll, conducted for The <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/DesMoinesRegister" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#DesMoinesRegister</a>, can offer clues about broader trends in the electorate. In 2016, when many <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Democrats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Democrats</a> were feeling complacent about a <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/HillaryClinton" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#HillaryClinton</a> victory, her survey showing <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Trump" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Trump</a> leading by 7pts in Iowa was an early indication of his underestimated strength in the Midwest.<a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Women" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Women</a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/HarrisWalz2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#HarrisWalz2024</a>

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