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#preprint

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Bibliolater 📚 📜 🖋

🔴 **Long-term hunter-gatherer continuity in the Rhine-Meuse region was disrupted by local formation of expansive Bell Beaker groups**

“_We document an exception to this pattern in the wider Rhine-Meuse area in communities in the wetlands, riverine areas, and coastal areas of the western and central Netherlands, Belgium and western Germany, where we assembled genome-wide data for 109 people 8500-1700 BCE. Here, a distinctive population with high hunter-gatherer ancestry (∼50%) persisted up to three thousand years later than in continental European regions, reflecting limited incorporation of females of Early European Farmer ancestry into local communities._”

Olalde, I. et al. (2025) 'Long-term hunter-gatherer continuity in the Rhine-Meuse region was disrupted by local formation of expansive Bell Beaker groups,' bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) [Preprint]. doi.org/10.1101/2025.03.24.644.

#Preprint #Science #Biology #Genetics #Archaeology #Archaeodons #Anthropology #Europe @archaeodons

bioRxiv · Long-term hunter-gatherer continuity in the Rhine-Meuse region was disrupted by local formation of expansive Bell Beaker groupsThe first phase of the ancient DNA revolution painted a broad-brush picture of European Holocene prehistory, whereby 6500-4000 BCE, farmers descending from western Anatolians mixed with local hunter-gatherers resulting in 70-100% ancestry turnover, then 3000-2500 BCE people associated with the Corded Ware complex spread steppe ancestry into north-central Europe. We document an exception to this pattern in the wider Rhine-Meuse area in communities in the wetlands, riverine areas, and coastal areas of the western and central Netherlands, Belgium and western Germany, where we assembled genome-wide data for 109 people 8500-1700 BCE. Here, a distinctive population with high hunter-gatherer ancestry (∼50%) persisted up to three thousand years later than in continental European regions, reflecting limited incorporation of females of Early European Farmer ancestry into local communities. In the western Netherlands, the arrival of the Corded Ware complex was also exceptional: lowland individuals from settlements adopting Corded Ware pottery had hardly any steppe ancestry, despite a characteristic early Corded Ware Y-chromosome. The limited influx may reflect the unique ecology of the region’s river-dominated landscapes, which were not amenable to wholesale adoption of the early Neolithic type of farming introduced by Linearbandkeramik, making it possible for previously established groups to thrive, and creating a persistent but permeable boundary that allowed transfer of ideas and low-level gene flow. This changed with the formation-through-mixture of Bell Beaker using populations ∼2500 BCE by fusion of local Rhine-Meuse people (9-17%) and Corded Ware associated migrants of both sexes. Their expansion from the Rhine-Meuse region then had a disruptive impact across a much wider part of northwest Europe, including Britain where its arrival was the main source of a 90-100% replacement of local Neolithic peoples. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.
Public
Bibliolater 📚 📜 🖋

🔴 **Monitoring Reasoning Models for Misbehavior and the Risks of Promoting Obfuscation**

“_While we show that integrating CoT monitors into the reinforcement learning reward can indeed produce more capable and more aligned agents in the low optimization regime, we find that with too much optimization, agents learn obfuscated reward hacking, hiding their intent within the CoT while still exhibiting a significant rate of reward hacking._”

Baker, B. et al. (2025) Monitoring reasoning models for misbehavior and the risks of promoting obfuscation. arxiv.org/abs/2503.11926.

#AI #ArtificialIntelligence #LLM #LLMS #ComputerScience #Obfuscation #Preprint #Academia #Academics @ai @computerscience

arXiv.orgMonitoring Reasoning Models for Misbehavior and the Risks of Promoting ObfuscationMitigating reward hacking--where AI systems misbehave due to flaws or misspecifications in their learning objectives--remains a key challenge in constructing capable and aligned models. We show that we can monitor a frontier reasoning model, such as OpenAI o3-mini, for reward hacking in agentic coding environments by using another LLM that observes the model's chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. CoT monitoring can be far more effective than monitoring agent actions and outputs alone, and we further found that a LLM weaker than o3-mini, namely GPT-4o, can effectively monitor a stronger model. Because CoT monitors can be effective at detecting exploits, it is natural to ask whether those exploits can be suppressed by incorporating a CoT monitor directly into the agent's training objective. While we show that integrating CoT monitors into the reinforcement learning reward can indeed produce more capable and more aligned agents in the low optimization regime, we find that with too much optimization, agents learn obfuscated reward hacking, hiding their intent within the CoT while still exhibiting a significant rate of reward hacking. Because it is difficult to tell when CoTs have become obfuscated, it may be necessary to pay a monitorability tax by not applying strong optimization pressures directly to the chain-of-thought, ensuring that CoTs remain monitorable and useful for detecting misaligned behavior.
Public
Bibliolater 📚 📜 🖋

🔴 **Fully Autonomous AI Agents Should Not be Developed**

“_Our analysis reveals that risks to people increase with the autonomy of a system: The more control a user cedes to an AI agent, the more risks to people arise. Particularly concerning are safety risks, which affect human life and impact further values._”

Mitchell, M. et al. (2025) 'Fully Autonomous AI Agents Should Not be Developed,' arXiv (Cornell University) [Preprint]. doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2502.02.

#AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Preprint #Academia #Academics @ai

arXiv.orgFully Autonomous AI Agents Should Not be DevelopedThis paper argues that fully autonomous AI agents should not be developed. In support of this position, we build from prior scientific literature and current product marketing to delineate different AI agent levels and detail the ethical values at play in each, documenting trade-offs in potential benefits and risks. Our analysis reveals that risks to people increase with the autonomy of a system: The more control a user cedes to an AI agent, the more risks to people arise. Particularly concerning are safety risks, which affect human life and impact further values.
Public
Ronald Snijder

Evaluating #Multilingual #Metadata Quality in #Crossref / Dennis Donathan II, Mike Nason, Marco Tullney, Julie Shi, Juan Pablo Alperin
arxiv.org/abs/2503.11853

arXiv.orgEvaluating Multilingual Metadata Quality in CrossrefIntroduction: Scholarly research spans multiple languages, making multilingual metadata crucial for organizing and accessing knowledge across linguistic boundaries. These multilingual metadata already exist and are propagated throughout scholarly publishing infrastructure, but the extent to which they are correctly recorded, or how they affect metadata quality more broadly is little understood. Methods: Our study quantifies the prevalence of multilingual records across a sample of publisher metadata and offers an understanding of their completeness, quality, and alignment with metadata standards. Utilizing the Crossref API to generate a random sample of 519,665 journal article records, we categorize each record into four distinct language types: English monolingual, non-English monolingual, multilingual, and uncategorized. We then investigate the prevalence of programmatically-detectable errors and the prevalence of multilingual records within the sample to determine whether multilingualism influences the quality of article metadata. Results: We find that English-only records are still in the vast majority among metadata found in Crossref, but that, while non-English and multilingual records present unique challenges, they are not a source of significant metadata quality issues and, in few instances, are more complete or correct than English monolingual records. Discussion & Conclusion: Our findings contribute to discussions surrounding multilingualism in scholarly communication, serving as a resource for researchers, publishers, and information professionals seeking to enhance the global dissemination of knowledge and foster inclusivity in the academic landscape.
#ScholComm#bibliodiversity#preprint
Public
Ajay Iyer

Happy to share my latest preprint: "Using network component analysis to study axenisation strategies for phototrophic eukaryotic microalgae"

(DOI: dx.doi.org/10.1101/2025.03.07.).

We revisited all publications in the last century focusing on the axenisation of microalgae, and used Network Component Analysis to understand how workflows can be (re-)desgined to remove contaminating microbes from microalgal cultures.

#preprint #microalgae @academicchatter @academia

Public
Paul Balduf

Together with Simone Hu, we have a new #preprint in theoretical #physics, or rather #mathematics.
The upshot is that there is a certain formulation of #Feynman integrals that is useful in a class of #quantum field theories (namely, 1-dimensional topological directions in holomorphic-topological theories). The integrand of these integrals is what we call "topological form".
On the other hand, there is a family of integrals that detects cohomology classes in the odd graph complex. That means, they find out whether some graph can be generated by shrinking edges in a certain way. The integrand in these integrals is called "Pfaffian form".
In our new preprint, we prove that the Pfaffian form and the topological form are the same.
arxiv.org/abs/2503.09558

arXiv.orgThe Topological form is the Pfaffian formFor a given graph $G$, Budzik, Gaiotto, Kulp, Wang, Williams, Wu, Yu, and the first author studied a ''topological'' differential form $α_G$, which expresses violations of BRST-closedness of a quantum field theory along a single topological direction. In a seemingly unrelated context, Brown, Panzer, and the second author studied a ''Pfaffian'' differential form $ϕ_G$, which is used to construct cohomology classes of the odd commutative graph complex. We give an explicit combinatorial proof that $α_G$ coincides with $ϕ_G$. We also discuss the equivalence of several properties of these forms, which had been established independently for both contexts in previous work.
Public
Dr Micha Campbell

🚨 New preprint 🚨

Hydrology and cave (and cave hydrology!) enthusiasts may enjoy this preprint just posted today for community review in the #EGU journal #HESS. Led by former #UNSW student, Christina Song, with @Andbaker and myself, we looked at recharge thresholds (amount of precipitation needed for recharge to occur in a cave), and how they changed after a fire.

egusphere.copernicus.org/prepr

The preprint is open now for community discussion, and will be accepting comments until 23 April.

egusphere.copernicus.orgRainfall recharge thresholds decrease after an intense fire over a near-surface cave at Wombeyan, AustraliaAbstract. Quantifying the amount of rainfall needed to generate groundwater recharge is important for the sustainable management of groundwater resources. Here, we quantify rainfall recharge thresholds using drip loggers situated in a near-surface cave: Wildman’s cave at Wombeyan, southeast Australia. In just over two years of monitoring, 42 potential recharge events were identified in the cave, approximately 4 m below land surface which comprises a 30° slope with 37 % bare rock. Recharge events occurred within 48 hours of rainfall. Using daily precipitation data, the median 48 h rainfall needed to generate recharge was 19.8 mm, without clear seasonal variability. An intense experimental fire experiment was conducted 18 months into the monitoring period: the median 48 h rainfall needed to generate recharge was 22.1 mm before the fire (n=22) and 16.4 mm after the fire (n=20), with the decrease in rainfall recharge most noticeable starting three months after the fire.. Rainfall recharge thresholds and number of potential recharge events at Wildman’s Cave are consistent with those published from other caves in water-limited Australia. At Wildman’s Cave, we infer that soil water storage, combined with the generation of overland flow over bare limestone surfaces is the pathway for water movement to the subsurface via fractures and that these determine the rainfall recharge threshold. Immediately after the fire, surface ash deposits initially retard overland flow, and after ash removal from the land surface, soil loss and damage decrease the available soil water storage capacity, leading to more efficient infiltration and a decreased rainfall recharge threshold.
#Hydrology#groundwater#preprint
Public
Bibliolater 📚 📜 🖋

⚪ 💻 **What does AI consider praiseworthy?**

_"We map out the moral landscape of LLMs in how they respond to user statements in different domains including politics and everyday ethical actions. In particular, although a naïve analysis might suggest LLMs are biased against right-leaning politics, our findings on news sources indicate that trustworthiness is a stronger driver of praise and critique than ideology."_

Peterson, A.J. (2024) 'What does AI consider praiseworthy?,' arXiv (Cornell University) [Preprint]. doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2412.09.

#Preprint #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #LLM #LLMS #Technology #Tech #Ethics #Ideology @ai

arXiv.orgWhat does AI consider praiseworthy?As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for work, personal, and therapeutic purposes, researchers have begun to investigate these models' implicit and explicit moral views. Previous work, however, focuses on asking LLMs to state opinions, or on other technical evaluations that do not reflect common user interactions. We propose a novel evaluation of LLM behavior that analyzes responses to user-stated intentions, such as "I'm thinking of campaigning for {candidate}." LLMs frequently respond with critiques or praise, often beginning responses with phrases such as "That's great to hear!..." While this makes them friendly, these praise responses are not universal and thus reflect a normative stance by the LLM. We map out the moral landscape of LLMs in how they respond to user statements in different domains including politics and everyday ethical actions. In particular, although a naïve analysis might suggest LLMs are biased against right-leaning politics, our findings on news sources indicate that trustworthiness is a stronger driver of praise and critique than ideology. Second, we find strong alignment across models in response to ethically-relevant action statements, but that doing so requires them to engage in high levels of praise and critique of users, suggesting a reticence-alignment tradeoff. Finally, our experiment on statements about world leaders finds no evidence of bias favoring the country of origin of the models. We conclude that as AI systems become more integrated into society, their patterns of praise, critique, and neutrality must be carefully monitored to prevent unintended psychological and societal consequences.
Public
Bibliolater 📚 📜 🖋

🔴 **Strategic Wealth Accumulation Under Transformative AI Expectations**

_“This paper analyzes how expectations of Transformative AI (TAI) affect current economic behavior by introducing a novel mechanism where automation redirects labor income from workers to those controlling AI systems, with the share of automated labor controlled by each household depending on their wealth at the time of invention.”_

Maresca, C. (2025) 'Strategic wealth accumulation under transformative AI expectations,' arXiv (Cornell University) [Preprint]. doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2502.11.

#Preprint #Economics #Technology #Tech #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Academia #Academic @economics @ai

arXiv.orgStrategic Wealth Accumulation Under Transformative AI ExpectationsThis paper analyzes how expectations of Transformative AI (TAI) affect current economic behavior by introducing a novel mechanism where automation redirects labor income from workers to those controlling AI systems, with the share of automated labor controlled by each household depending on their wealth at the time of invention. Using a modified neoclassical growth model calibrated to contemporary AI timeline forecasts, I find that even moderate assumptions about wealth-based allocation of AI labor generate substantial increases in pre-TAI interest rates. Under baseline scenarios with proportional wealth-based allocation, one-year interest rates rise to 10-16% compared to approximately 3% without strategic competition. The model reveals a notable divergence between interest rates and capital rental rates, as households accept lower productive returns in exchange for the strategic value of wealth accumulation. These findings suggest that evolving beliefs about TAI could create significant upward pressure on interest rates well before any technological breakthrough occurs, with important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.
Public
Bibliolater 📚 📜 🖋

🔴 **Strategic Wealth Accumulation Under Transformative AI Expectations**

_"This paper analyzes how expectations of Transformative AI (TAI) affect current economic behavior by introducing a novel mechanism where automation redirects labor income from workers to those controlling AI systems, with the share of automated labor controlled by each household depending on their wealth at the time of invention."_

Maresca, C. (2025) 'Strategic wealth accumulation under transformative AI expectations,' arXiv (Cornell University) [Preprint]. doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2502.11.

#Preprint #Economics #Technology #Tech #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Academia #Academic @economics @ai

arXiv.orgStrategic Wealth Accumulation Under Transformative AI ExpectationsThis paper analyzes how expectations of Transformative AI (TAI) affect current economic behavior by introducing a novel mechanism where automation redirects labor income from workers to those controlling AI systems, with the share of automated labor controlled by each household depending on their wealth at the time of invention. Using a modified neoclassical growth model calibrated to contemporary AI timeline forecasts, I find that even moderate assumptions about wealth-based allocation of AI labor generate substantial increases in pre-TAI interest rates. Under baseline scenarios with proportional wealth-based allocation, one-year interest rates rise to 10-16% compared to approximately 3% without strategic competition. The model reveals a notable divergence between interest rates and capital rental rates, as households accept lower productive returns in exchange for the strategic value of wealth accumulation. These findings suggest that evolving beliefs about TAI could create significant upward pressure on interest rates well before any technological breakthrough occurs, with important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.
Public
Charo del Genio

Just found this gem on the arXiv. A calculation of the effects of a primordial black hole passing through a human body.

"Unfortunately, it is easy to see that the effect of PBH collisions with the human population will always be negligible.".

"UNFORTUNATELY". 😂😂😂

#physics #astrophysics #arXiv #blackhole #darkmatter #cynical #nihilist #preprint

arxiv.org/abs/2502.09734

arXiv.orgGravitational Effects of a Small Primordial Black Hole Passing Through the Human BodyThe gravitational effects of a primordial black hole (PBH) passing through the human body are examined, with the goal of determining the minimum mass necessary to produce significant injury or death. Two effects are examined: the damage caused by a shock wave propagating outward from the black hole trajectory, and the dissociation of brain cells from tidal forces produced by the black hole on its passage through the human body. It is found that the former is the dominant effect, with a cutoff mass for serious injury or death of approximately $M_{PBH} > 1.4 \times 10^{17} {\rm g}$. The number density of primordial black holes with a mass above this cutoff is far too small to produce any observable effects on the human population.
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Anita Graser 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇬🇪

I really enjoyed the interdisciplinary collaboration sparked by the gAia project on predicting #landslides, resulting in our recent #preprint:

📝 "Visualizing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modeling using bivariate mapping"

nhess.copernicus.org/preprints

nhess.copernicus.orgBrief communication: Visualizing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modeling using bivariate mappingAbstract. Effectively communicating uncertainties inherent to statistical models is a challenging yet crucial aspect of the modeling process. This is particularly important in applied research, where output is used and interpreted by scientists and decision makers alike. In disaster risk reduction, susceptibility maps for natural hazards are vital for spatial planning and risk assessment. We present a novel type of landslide susceptibility map that jointly visualizes the estimated susceptibility and the corresponding prediction uncertainty, using an example from a mountainous region in Carinthia, Austria. We also provide implementation guidelines to create such maps using popular free and open-source software packages.
#QGIS#RStats#GIScience
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