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Eric Maugendre<p>"In real life, we weigh the anticipated consequences of the decisions that we are about to make. That approach is much more rational than limiting the percentage of making the error of one kind in an artificial (null hypothesis) setting or using a measure of evidence for each model as the weight."<br>Longford (2005) <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/stuff_for_blog/longford.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">http://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/stuf</span><span class="invisible">f_for_blog/longford.pdf</span></a></p><p><a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/modeling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>modeling</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/nullHypothesis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>nullHypothesis</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/probability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>probability</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/probabilities" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>probabilities</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/pValues" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>pValues</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/statistics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>statistics</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/stats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>stats</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/statisticalLiteracy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>statisticalLiteracy</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/bias" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>bias</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/inference" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>inference</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/modelling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>modelling</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/regression" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>regression</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/linearRegression" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>linearRegression</span></a></p>
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#nullhypothesis
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Eric Maugendre<p>Surveys, coincidences, statistical significance 🧵</p><p>"What Educated Citizens Should Know About Statistics and Probability"<br>By Jessica Utts, in 2003: <a href="https://ics.uci.edu/~jutts/AmerStat2003.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ics.uci.edu/~jutts/AmerStat200</span><span class="invisible">3.pdf</span></a> via <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://hachyderm.io/@hrefna" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>hrefna</span></a></span> </p><p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://a.gup.pe/u/edutooters" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>edutooters</span></a></span></p><p><a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/nullHypothesis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>nullHypothesis</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/probability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>probability</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/probabilities" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>probabilities</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/pValues" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>pValues</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/statistics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>statistics</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/stats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>stats</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/education" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>education</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/higherEd" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>higherEd</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/statisticalLiteracy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>statisticalLiteracy</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/bias" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>bias</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/media" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>media</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/causalInference" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>causalInference</span></a></p>
Eric Maugendre<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodon.social/@level98" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>level98</span></a></span> </p><p>😀<br>There even wikipedia on the "Misuse of p-values": <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_p-values" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_o</span><span class="invisible">f_p-values</span></a></p><p>I therefore am adding to my guidelines: "Instead of telling researchers what they want to know, statisticians should teach researchers which questions they can ask. […]<br>Before we can improve our statistical inferences, we need to improve our statistical questions."</p><p>Excerpt from Daniël Lakens (2021) <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691620958012" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.11</span><span class="invisible">77/1745691620958012</span></a></p><p><a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/quotes" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>quotes</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/nullHypothesis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>nullHypothesis</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/probability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>probability</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/math" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>math</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/pValues" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>pValues</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/maths" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>maths</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/AIEthics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AIEthics</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/ML" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ML</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/statistics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>statistics</span></a></p>
Eric Maugendre<p>In 2016, the American Statistical Association <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/ASA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ASA</span></a> made a formal statement that "a p-value, or statistical significance, does not measure the size of an effect or the importance of a result".</p><p>It also stated that "p-values do not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true, or the probability that the data were produced by random chance alone".</p><p><a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/nullHypothesis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>nullHypothesis</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/probabilities" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>probabilities</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/probability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>probability</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/maths" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>maths</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/mathematics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>mathematics</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/vectors" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>vectors</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/data" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>data</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/bigData" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>bigData</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/matrices" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>matrices</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/ML" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ML</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/distributions" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>distributions</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/stats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>stats</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/statistics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>statistics</span></a></p>
Coach Pāṇini ®<p>I hold an undergraduate degree in <a href="https://mastodon.world/tags/engineering" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>engineering</span></a> from the flagship land-grant institution of a Southern state in a drinking town with a football problem.</p><p>You want to blame universities for <a href="https://mastodon.world/tags/CriticalTheory" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>CriticalTheory</span></a>, post-<a href="https://mastodon.world/tags/ColonialStudies" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ColonialStudies</span></a>, and <a href="https://mastodon.world/tags/IdentityPolitics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>IdentityPolitics</span></a>, but I’m your <a href="https://mastodon.world/tags/NullHypothesis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>NullHypothesis</span></a>.</p><p>GTFOH</p>
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