Spaceflight 🚀<p>Low-risk, high-consequence outcomes, such as a piece of a <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/rocket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>rocket</span></a> stage <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/crashing" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>crashing</span></a> into a high-density city 🏙️ or a large passenger aircraft ✈️. In the latter case, even a small piece could cause hundreds of <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/casualties" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>casualties</span></a> ☠️. <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Internationally" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Internationally</span></a>, there is no clear and widely agreed casualty <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/risk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>risk</span></a> threshold. <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Governments" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Governments</span></a> have apparently chosen to bear the slight <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/risk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>risk</span></a> of having to <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/compensate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>compensate</span></a> for one or more casualties ☠️., rather than to require launch providers to make expensive technological or mission design changes. Assuming that each <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/reentry" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>reentry</span></a> spreads <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/lethal" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>lethal</span></a> ☠️.<a href="https://techhub.social/tags/debris" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>debris</span></a> over a 10m2 area, we conclude that current practices have on order a 10% chance of one or more casualties ☠️.over a decade. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-022-01718-8" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">nature.com/articles/s41550-022</span><span class="invisible">-01718-8</span></a></p><p><a href="https://techhub.social/tags/SpaceDebris" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>SpaceDebris</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Rocket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Rocket</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/reentry" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>reentry</span></a></p>